VOCALOID Trans-Pacific Project Unveiled ? Vocaloidism

Tuesday ? October 30, 2012 ? by hightrancesea

A new initiative titled ?VOCALOID Trans-Pacific Project? (not to be confused with the more heinous Trans-Pacific Partnership) was unveiled at DC Expo a few days ago. DC Expo (short for Digital Content Expo) is ?an international event intended to shape the future of [the digital content] industry five or ten years into the future as well as promote the exchange of the latest information between participating researchers, creators and businesspeople active in this field.? According to a talk segment (recording available on Ustream) involving INTERNET, Bplats and Yamaha, the project aims to spread the creative culture behind VOCALOID to the US and eventually throughout Asia. INTERNET Co. Ltd. also unveiled a tentative release date of February 2013 for the English version of megpoid. This is the third year VOCALOID was featured at DC Expo, with simple demonstrations of the software and LiveAR performances held previously.

Preliminaries

At the venue, the projector first played back related footage from previous years of DC Expo, including shots of HRP-4C MIMU as well as a LiveAR performance featuring Akikoloid-chan and GUMI dancing to Aoi Konbini de Aimashou and Megane no Mukou no Sekai. The video concluded with a series of on screen messages: ?2012?, ?VOCALOID meets Cool Japan? and ?VOCALOID Trance[sic]-Pacific Project?. After the video showing, four panelists walked on stage, apologizing for being just a group of old men.

After everyone sat down, the panel chair, Masaru Ishikawa, talked briefly about what was shown on screen. He also mentioned that this was the third year VOCALOID was featured at DC Expo and a new project will be unveiled. Ishikawa then invited the rest of the panel to introduce themselves: Noboru Murakami from INTERNET, Takuma Miyazaki from Bplats and Osamu Ohshima from Yamaha. Finally, Ishikawa introduced himself as a researcher from University of Tokyo working in the Information and Robot Technology Research Initiative.

With introductions finished, Ishikawa summarized the aim and content of this talk show. This Trans-Pacific Project is essentially a collaboration between VOCALOID and the Cool Japan Project, the latter aiming to spread culture based on Japanese creative works as well as related industries throughout the world. The title ?Trans-Pacific? was intended to convey the idea of crossing the Pacific and spreading VOCALOID culture over to the US, as well as to other Asian countries over time.

Bplats?s Yamazaki noted that there actually hasn?t been a VOCALOID product native to North America yet. Yamaha?s Ohshima then clarified that although there are several English VOCALOID sound banks, none of them originated in North America. Having one come out of the US would require a suitable business partner.

What is VOCALOID?

Before going further, the panel wanted to describe in more detail what VOCALOID is. Ohshima stated that while VOCALOID is simply vocal synthesis technology to Yamaha, people began writing songs with VOCALOID and others started drawing artwork, resulting in VOCALOID spreading far and wide.

As far as business was concerned, the biggest role Yamaha plays is the development of the technology and its licensing to business partners. One such licensee is INTERNET, which creates the voice banks and packages the two together into a product. Meanwhile, companies like Bplats operate in the background and handle the logistics of eventually setting up a product on a store shelf.

However, the panelists stated that VOCALOID embodied more than simply the business aspect. In fact, a ?VOCALOID culture? as developed. One example given was a specific LiveAR showing outside a train station in Japan. Footage on the projector showed animated computer generated models of Tone Rion, Akikoloid-chan and GUMI dancing with the crowd, while Cyber Thunder Cider played in the background. This event was held outside of Seibushinjuku Station, and the original camera footage was combined with the 3D models using augmented reality techniques and then displayed on giant YUNICA VISION screens. Some of the people in the crowd didn?t really know what was going on, but a lot of them were happily partying along. Ohshima mentioned that perhaps this could be expanded into a digital signage business and also stressed that the music was created by ?normal? creators. In a way, he said, this was like a guerrilla concert. Ishikawa noted that while people of his generation probably don?t have a very good idea of VOCALOID, younger generations, especially those in their teens, are very familiar with VOCALOID; VOCALOID songs consistently score very high on song popularity rankings for karaoke.

VOCALOID through INTERNET, Bplats and Yamaha

With an overview of VOCALOID and its culture out of the way, the panelists wanted to then go into more detail about their respective businesses. Murakami started by going over the release history of his company?s VOCALOID products, starting with the VOCALOID2 releases. He noted that although he started with sound banks recorded by singers, for some reason they also decided to release Gachapoid. Murakami then moved onto giving an overview of INTERNET?s VOCALOID3 releases, at which point one of the panelists wondered if there were perhaps multiple copies of him, since he worked personally on all these databanks. The slides then ended up with a shot of a white product box, stating that megpoid English had a tentative February 2013 release date. Apparently this information hadn?t even been sent out via press releases yet, so this was considered an ?unofficial announcement?. According to Murakami, the recording for this sound bank had already been finished, and the panelists started discussing the differences between Japanese and English sound banks.

Apparently, while Japanese sound banks have approximately 500 or so phonemes, English has approximately 5 times the amount. However, unfortunately while the work is greatly magnified, they obviously couldn?t raise the price and still expect it to sell, and thus one panelist quipped that Murakami had to take a pay cut (in terms of income per phoneme). According to him, it also takes approximately three to four times as long to record the audio for the English sound bank.

Murakami then moved on to promote his company?s upcoming Singer Songwriter (SSW) 10 product, with a scheduled release date of November 9. He noted that although VOCALOID can provide the vocals, songs still needed backing instrumentation, which is where digital audio workstation (DAW) software such as SSW came in. Although VOCALOID3 stopped supporting ReWire (and thus direct synchronization with DAW software), SSW 10 claims to be able to synch with VOCALOID through the use of a VST plugin that VOCALOID3 Editor would load. This plugin sounds very much like V3Sync, a third-party plugin which let VOCALOID3 Editor talk with other DAW packages.

After Murakami?s overview of INTERNET, Ohshima proceeded to give an overview of the recently-released VocaListener, touted as a tool which can be used to copy the singing style of a vocalist from a recording. As an example, he showed GUMI copying Kaori Mochida?s performance of Every Little Thing, which was originally to demonstrate MIMU, but the MIMU voice bank isn?t publicly available. He noted that the provided vocals unfortunately had some reverb and thus VocaListener got confused by it, making the result kind of strange. VocaListener?s distribution is handled by Bplats.

And with that segue, Yamazaki went over what Bplats was about. Bplats provides many services, including cloud service brokerage and conversion assistance. However, Bplats also handles distribution of VOCALOID products. The company was involved with the CloudVST project (which enabled usage of VST plugins through the cloud) as well as the VOCALOID STORE, VOCALOID CHINA and the distribution of VOCALOID3 products. Recently, Bplats started a new label called VOCALOID MUSIC PUBLISHING (VMP), which aims to help VOCALOID artists distribute their music. Although not mentioned during the panel, Bplats was involved in the distribution of galaco and encouraged downloaders to sign up with VMP. VMP then sent out emails recently about their service, which submitted songs to various digital distribution platforms for a 50% cut of the revenue (after the distribution platforms take their cut).

VOCALOID Trans-Pacific Project ? Slide 1

At this point the panelists realized they may have dwelt too long on preliminaries and moved on to talk more about the Trans-Pacific Project. A giant word-packed slide was shown on the screen detailing the project.

This first slide talked about one aspect of the VOCALOID Trans-Pacific project ? setting up a foundation for a VOCALOID-using music business in America. The slide gives a background on VOCALOID as well as the lack of a basis for VOCALOID music in America, which is where the project would come in. The project aims to break down previous bottlenecks to establish the basis for a ?very profitable? [VOCALOID music] business outside Japan. This will be accomplished through digital distribution of music, sales through both online and retail channels, promotions during events attended by music creators, construction of a foundation for interchange through VOCALOID as well as business-to-business marketing, all timed to coincide with the release of English sound banks for VOCALOID. These measures will be enacted in America, with its high Asian population and being the epicenter of a music business with global reach. The fruits of this endeavor would then be circulated through Asian cultural networks in the Asia Pacific region. The actual plan involves the following specific actions:

1. Promotion of the sale of English VOCALOID
2. Distribution of VOCALOID music through social media
3. Promotion at New People in San Francisco
4. Marketing and promotion at events in the US attended by music creators
5. Partnership with the English version of niconico, niconico.com [though that has technically merged with niconico proper already]
6. Promotion in collaboration with Japanese businesses

The main parties (or ?producers?) involved with bringing this to fruition are: Yuki Seto (producer from Yamaha?s yamaha+ Promotion House) as overall lead, Noboru Murakami (CEO of INTERNET Co., Ltd.) to handle VOCALOID software, Seiji Horibuchi (CEO of NEW PEOPLE Inc.) to handle relations with the American side, and Masaru Ishikawa (CEO of think.communications and Specially Appointed Researcher at Tokyo University) to handle marketing and promotion.

The project?s primary schedule consists of the following:

• From October 2012 to January 2013: content and website creation
• From January 2013 to March 2013: Promotion both at retail outlets and through the media
• From January 2013 to March 2013: Promotion for the sales of English VOCALOID
• From January 2013 to March 2013: Promotion and marketing at creator-oriented events [e.g. conventions/conferences]

Lastly, the main slide provided a list of participating companies. They are: Bplats, Inc., Yamaha Corporation, UGC Publishing, Inc., INTERNET Co., Ltd., AHS Co. Ltd., 1st PLACE Co.,Ltd., STUDIO DEEN CO.,Ltd. and DWANGO Co.,Ltd.

VOCALOID Trans-Pacific Project ? Slide 2

A second slide illustrates a second part of the project, with ideas aimed at creating a foundation for businesses rooted in VOCALOID user-generated content. In other words, the planners wish to elevate VOCALOID as a genre to a level commensurate with genres well known all over the world, like rock and fusion. They break this aim up into five smaller goals:

• Increase inbound Japanese pop-culture tourism traffic to Akihabara and Harajuku.
• Increase the media content market in America via English VOCALOID.
• Increase opportunities for talented young Japanese creators to debut in America.
• Ripple effects affecting distribution and other businesses.
• Ripple effects emanating towards the Pacific rim, including countries such as China, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore and Australia.

They also detail several more specific plans:

1. Promotion timed to coincide with release of an English VOCALOID [with a picture of GUMI surrounded by glowsticks].
2. Distribution of VOCALOID music ? Broadcast of music by Japanese creators through internet streaming sites [with a flipped picture of YouTube].
3. Sales through brick and mortar outlets ? sales of physical product through NEW PEOPLE in San Francisco, a beachhead for J-Pop.
4. Promotion of the project at creator-aimed events, including International CES and the NAMM Show.
5. Constructing a foundation for VOCALOID interchange in America ? collaboration with the English version of niconico on niconico.com.
6. Business to business marketing in America.

This project will involve the participation of both VOCALOID-related and unrelated businesses, such as Bplats, Yamaha, INTERNET, AHS, 1st PLACE, STUDIO DEEN and niconico.

VOCALOID Trans-Pacific Project ? Discussion

While the slides were running, the panelists commented on them, mentioning January events in Las Vegas (CES) and Anaheim (NAMM). Murakami stated that his biggest goal was for American creators to use megpoid English. Yamazaki noted that Bplats will be providing the distribution infrastructure required. He also played a curious clip of a demo song sung in three different languages. SeeU sang the Japanese and Korean versions of Kimpaksa?s ?Alone? (lyrics by 45 degrees), with Luo Tianyi covering the Chinese version of the song. The panelists agreed that usually, there are two types of people who enjoy VOCALOID ? those who like it in Japanese and those who?d like to experience it in their own native language, and they note that America is likely like that as well. Ohshima commented that Yamaha is known internationally for their musical instruments and they would also like for VOCALOID creativity to bloom as well.

Finally, Ishikawa added that he is happy that VOCALOID is getting more popular in America. However, he wants the idea of VOCALOID as a musical instrument to spread more and want users to make new media using VOCALOID and spread them on content sharing websites, getting fans to comment on them, etc. Without this cycle, he feels that the VOCALOID phenomenon in Japan wouldn?t be able to be replicated elsewhere. He would like the business process of nurturing VOCALOID in Japan to expand step by step into America.

And with about 20 seconds left on the clock, the panelists said the closings to conclude the panel.

Posted in: General News

Tagged with: Bplats, Internet Co. Ltd., Yamaha

Source: http://www.vocaloidism.com/vocaloid-trans-pacific-project-unveiled/

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Study: Costs Rise, But Americans Happier With Auto Insurance

With initial damage estimates for Hurricane Sandy pegged at $20 billion or more, insurance companies are facing a very busy couple of weeks. But while they brace for massive payouts, agencies can take heart in one bit of very good news, courtesy of??J.D. Power and Associates' 2012 U.S. Auto Claims Satisfaction Study -- namely, that Americans have become more satisfied with their auto insurance companies, even as out-of-pocket costs have risen.

To reach those conclusions, Power surveyed over 12,508 insurance customers who had filed and settled claims within the past six months. The survey took place over an 11-month period, from November 2011 to September 2012.

(Power noted that the survey focused on customers whose vehicles were significantly damaged; those with damage to their car's glass or who only filed claims for roadside assistance were excluded. Stolen vehicles were also excluded.)

Survey participants were asked to rate satisfaction with their insurance company in six areas: "first notice of loss; service interaction; appraisal; repair process; rental experience; and settlement". Scores were doled out on a scale of 0 to 1,000. Here are the major takeaways:

• Satisfaction improved by six points from last year: the average overall score for 2012 was?852.
• When it comes to settlement -- arguably?the most important factor -- average scores were up nine points from 2011, resting at 846.
• Interestingly, those who filed total-loss claims were even happier with their settlements: for them, scores were 16 points higher. That could be due to the fact that payouts for total losses were up an average of $690 from last year -- mostly because of sky-high used-car values.
• Satisfaction might also be rising because the insured feel like the claims process is more transparent. This year,?64% of those surveyed said that their insurer offered ways to keep them informed of their claim's progress (via online updates and such). In 2011, that figure was 61%.
• Curiously, satisfaction grew even as out-of-pocket expenses crept upward. On average, respondents paid $403 for deductibles, rentals, and other uncovered expenses, which is up?$26?from 2011.
• America's favorite insurance company is Auto-Owners Insurance, which earned the highest overall score (887) for the fifth straight year. Rounding out the top five were Amica Mutual and Erie Insurance (tied at 876), and Automobile Club of?Southern California?and COUNTRY (tied at 874).
• At the other end of the scale, Commerce was America's least-favorite agency, with a score of (781). Esurance fared slightly better (801), as did Encompass (820), 21st Century (821), and Mercury (824).
• National heavy-hitters were all over the map: State Farm (868), Allstate (863), and Travelers (857) came in above the industry average of 852. Nationwide (848), GEICO (842), Progressive (842), and Farmers (838) didn't.

If you'd like a look at the management discussion of the J.D. Power report (which is less about rankings and more about consumer theory), you can find the PDF here.

And if you happen to live along the eastern coast of the U.S., we hope you're safe and sound. We also hope that you don't have too much need for your insurer, but if you do, we hope the claims process goes smoothly.

Source: http://www.thecarconnection.com/news/1080153_study-costs-rise-but-americans-happier-with-auto-insurance

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WWE Universe raises $1 million for Susan G. Komen for the Cure

John Cena talks about partnering with Susan G. Komen for the Cure: WWE.com Exclusive, Oct. 29, 2012Heath Slater, Drew McIntyre, & Jinder Mahal give insight on the 3MB: Raw, Oct. 29, 20123MB talk about releasing a "hit": WWE App ExclusiveCM Punk and Mick Foley reveal their teams for Survivor Series: Raw, Oct. 29, 2012Beth Phoenix thanks the WWE Universe: WWE.com Exclusive, Oct. 29, 2012The match continues between Rey Mysterio & Sin Cara and Team Rhodes Scholars: WWE App ExclusiveDolph Ziggler shares his strong opinion on John Cena: WWE App Exclusive

Led by WWE Superstar John Cena, the WWE Universe has raised $1 million for Susan G. Komen for the Cure during its monthlong campaign to help cure breast cancer. (PHOTOS | WATCH)

In recognition of Breast Cancer Awareness Month, Cena wore co-branded, pink and black ring gear that fans were able to purchase throughout October to support Susan G. Komen, the world?s largest nonprofit funder of breast cancer research and community outreach programs. One hundred percent of WWE?s profits from the Cena merchandise was donated to Susan G. Komen.

On tonight?s episode of Monday Night Raw, Cena presented a check on behalf of the WWE Universe for $1 million to Eric Brinker, son of Susan G. Komen Founder/CEO Nancy G. Brinker, and Dorothy Jones, Vice President of Marketing for Susan G. Komen. More than 100 breast cancer survivors, co-survivors and representatives were in attendance to help bring awareness to the most commonly diagnosed cancer and the second-leading cause of cancer-related death among women in the United States.?

?I want to personally thank the WWE Universe for their overwhelming support of Susan G. Komen?s fight against breast cancer,? Cena said. ?I?m truly honored to lead WWE's charge to rise above cancer and help find a cure.?

?Women everywhere will benefit from this extraordinary partnership, which has helped to reach millions of people, while raising funds for Komen's cutting-edge global research program,? said Dorothy Jones, Vice President of Marketing for Susan G. Komen. ?We are so grateful for WWE, and especially to John Cena and the WWE Superstars and Divas, for their enthusiastic support and friendship.?

WWE also utilized all of its assets, including TV and pay-per-view broadcasts, Live Events, PSAs and in-arena, digital and social media to generate awareness and encourage fans to get involved. Throughout the month, the announcer table, entrance ramp and ring skirts were co-branded, and the middle ring rope was turned pink to promote the fight against breast cancer. WWE generated an astounding 500 million impressions for Susan G. Komen, including more than 300 million impressions during TV broadcasts in the U.S. and 200 million global digital impressions.

Approximately five million women ??more female viewers than the top rated shows on women?s networks ??watch WWE?s weekly programming.

While breast cancer awareness month is coming to an end, unfortunately the disease is still affecting millions of people across the world. WWE will continue its ongoing commitment to Susan G. Komen with additional plans for the partnership being made around Mother?s Day and beyond. For more information about Susan G. Komen for the Cure, breast health or breast cancer, visit?komen.org/wwe or call 1-877 GO KOMEN.

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Source: http://www.wwe.com/inside/overtheropes/wweinyourcorner/wwe-raises-1-million-susan-g-komen

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Video: Green Farming Investors

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What Does Security Mean to You? ? ProPay Blog

There is a lot of discussion about security for small businesses, and for the most part that discussion revolves around data security. There is good reason for that focus. ?Certainly, the number and magnitude of data thefts is on the rise, even as businesses take greater pains to secure their data. ?Additional attention is given to the issue as a result of the growing number of regulatory mandates for the protection of all types of personal information. ?Business are well-served to pay attention to their data security strategies. ? A recent article in Business News Daily, though, asks just how broad your business? security plan should be.

If you?re a small business owner, with a storefront or office location, it may be well worth the effort to create a physical security plan to deal with the eventuality of burglary or theft. ?Additionally, the physical security plan should work to create a safe working environment for employees and a hazard-free experience for customers. ?While we often worry about the relatively esoteric notion of someone hacking a network and stealing data, it is possible to overlook precautions for the far more likely event that someone will simply steal the equipment on which the data is stored. ? ?Protecting that equipment is just as important as ensuring that the network is secured.

It is easy to fall into the habit of using a one-dimensional definition of security. ?That is particularly true when the media and our industry are so focused on that one aspect. ?But physically securing your business, making sure that your assets, your building, your employees and your customers are secure are all important. ?In fact, one could even argue that the physical security of your employees and customers outstrips the other elements entirely. ?The point here is to remind ourselves that our businesses are not comprised of just one element and so our security plans should reflect that.

Source: http://blog.propay.com/index.php/2012/10/09/what-does-security-mean-to-you/

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US charges 73,000 desperate homeowners were conned

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Chavez wins 3rd re-election in tightest race yet

Supporters of Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez perform a mock funeral for opposition candidate Henrique Capriles as they celebrate in downtown Caracas, Venezuela, Sunday, Oct. 7, 2012. Chavez won re-election and a new endorsement of his socialist project Sunday, surviving his closest race yet after a bitter campaign against Capriles.(AP Photo/Ariana Cubillos)

Supporters of Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez perform a mock funeral for opposition candidate Henrique Capriles as they celebrate in downtown Caracas, Venezuela, Sunday, Oct. 7, 2012. Chavez won re-election and a new endorsement of his socialist project Sunday, surviving his closest race yet after a bitter campaign against Capriles.(AP Photo/Ariana Cubillos)

Supporters of President Hugo Chavez celebrate outside the Miraflores presidential palace in Caracas, Venezuela, Sunday, Oct. 7, 2012. Venezuela's electoral council said late Sunday President Hugo Chavez has won re-election, defeating challenger Henrique Capriles.(AP Photo/Ramon Espinosa)

Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez greets his supporters at the Miraflores presidential palace balcony in Caracas, Venezuela, Sunday, Oct. 7, 2012. Chavez won re-election and a new endorsement of his socialist project Sunday, surviving his closest race yet after a bitter campaign against opposition candidate Henrique Capriles.(AP Photo/Rodrigo Abd)

Supporters of Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez celebrate in downtown Caracas, Venezuela, Sunday, Oct. 7, 2012. Chavez won re-election and a new endorsement of his socialist project Sunday, surviving his closest race yet after a bitter campaign against opposition candidate Henrique Capriles.(AP Photo/Ariana Cubillos)

Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez, left, hods up ta replica of Simon Bolivar's sword as he greets supporters from the Miraflores presidential palace balcony in Caracas, Venezuela, Sunday, Oct. 7, 2012. Chavez won re-election and a new endorsement of his socialist project Sunday, surviving his closest race yet after a bitter campaign against opposition candidate Henrique Capriles.(AP Photo/Fernando Llano)

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) ? President Hugo Chavez put to rest any doubts about his masterful political touch in winning a third consecutive six-year term after a bitterly fought race against a youthful rival who has galvanized Venezuela's opposition.

The state governor who lost Sunday's presidential vote, Henrique Capriles, had accused the flamboyant incumbent of unfairly leveraging to his advantage Venezuela's oil wealth to finance his campaign as well as flaunting his near total control of state institutions.

Capriles also narrowed Chavez's margin of victory to his smallest yet in a presidential contest. This time, the former army paratroop commander who led a failed 1992 coup won 55 percent of the vote against 45 percent for Capriles, with 98 percent of the vote counted.

In 2006, Chavez's margin of victory was 27 points.

Nevertheless, the populace endorsed once again Chavez's stated aim of converting Venezuela into a socialist state.

Capriles said in his concession speech that he rejects the idea of two Venezuelas divided by ideology and class.

"I will continue working to build one country," said the wiry, 40-year-old grandson of Holocaust survivors who unified and energized the opposition while barnstorming across the oil-exporting nation.

Capriles had vowed to seriously address violent crime that has spun out of control, streamline a patronage-bloated bureaucracy and end rampant corruption, but his promises proved inadequate against Chavez's charisma, well-oiled political machine and legacy of putting Venezuela's poor first with generous social welfare programs.

Yet Chavez only got 551,902 more votes this time around than he did six years ago, while the opposition boosted its tally by 2.09 million. Chavez appeared to acknowledge the opposition's growing clout.

"I extend from here my recognition of all who voted against us, recognition of their democratic weight," he told thousands of cheering supporters from the balcony of the Miraflores presidential palace.

Tensions were high Sunday night as announcement of the results were delayed.

Finally, fireworks exploded over downtown Caracas amid a cacophony of horn-honking by elated Chavez supporters waving flags and jumping for joy outside the presidential palace.

Chavez will now have a freer hand to push for an even bigger state role in the economy, as he pledged during the campaign, and to continue populist programs. He's also likely to further limit dissent and deepen friendships with U.S. rivals.

A Capriles victory would have brought a radical foreign policy shift including a halt to preferential oil deals with allies such as Cuba, along with a loosening of state economic controls and an increase in private investment.

President Raul Castro of Cuba, which could have been badly hurt by a Chavez loss, was among Latin American leaders sending warm congratulations to the former paratrooper on his victory after nearly 14 years in office.

"I can't describe the relief and happiness I feel right now," said Edgar Gonzalez, a 38-year-old construction worker.

He ran through crowds of Chavez supporters packing the streets around the presidential palace wearing a Venezuelan flag as a cape and yelling: "Oh, no! Chavez won't go!"

"The revolution will continue, thanks to God and the people of this great country," said Gonzalez.

Voter turnout was an impressive 81 percent, compared to 75 percent in 2006. Chavez paid close attention to his military-like get-out-the-vote organization at the grass roots, stressing its importance at campaign rallies. The opposition said he unfairly plowed millions in state funds into the effort.

Chavez spent heavily in the months before the vote, building public housing and bankrolling expanded social programs.

"I think he just cranked up the patronage machine and unleashed a spending orgy," said Michael Shifter, president of the Washington-based Inter-American Dialogue think tank.

But Shifter also didn't deny the affinity and gratefulness Venezuela's poor feel for Chavez. "Despite his illness, I still think he retains a strong emotional connection with a lot of Venezuelans that I think were not prepared to vote against him."

"They still think that he's trying hard even if he's not delivering what he promised, that he still has their best interests at heart," Shifter said.

Chavez spoke little during the campaign about his fight with cancer, which since June 2011 has included surgery to remove tumors from his pelvic region as well as chemotherapy and radiation treatment. He has said his most recent tests showed no sign of illness.

Capriles told supporters not to feel defeated.

"We have planted many seeds across Venezuela and I know that these seeds are going to produce many trees," he told them at his campaign headquarters.

Despite winning a February primary that unified the opposition, Capriles was unable to sufficiently erode Chavez's firm base of loyal support.

One pro-Chavez voter, private bodyguard Carlos Julio Silva, said that whatever his faults, Chavez deserved to win for spreading the nation's oil wealth to the poor with free medical care, public housing and other government programs. The country has the world's largest proven oil reserves.

"There is corruption, there's plenty of bureaucracy, but the people have never had a leader who cared about this country," Silva said after voting for Chavez in the Caracas slum of Petare.

At many polling places, voters began lining up hours before polls opened at dawn, some snaking for blocks in the baking Caribbean sun. Some shaded themselves with umbrellas. Vendors grilled meat and some people drank beer.

Chavez's critics accused the president of inflaming divisions by labeling his opponents "fascists," ''Yankees" and "neo-Nazis," and it's likely hard for many of his opponents to stomach another six years of the loquacious and conflictive leader.

Some said before the vote that they'd consider leaving the country if Chavez won.

Gino Caso, an auto mechanic, said Chavez is power-hungry and out of touch with problems such as crime. He said his son had been robbed, as had neighboring shops.

"I don't know what planet he lives on," Caso said, gesturing with hands blackened with grease. "He wants to be like Fidel Castro ? end up with everything, take control of the country."

___

Associated Press writers Fabiola Sanchez, Christopher Toothaker, Jorge Rueda and Vivian Sequera contributed to this report.

___

Ian James on Twitter: http://twitter.com/ianjamesap

Frank Bajak on Twitter: http://twitter.com/fbajak

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/3d281c11a96b4ad082fe88aa0db04305/Article_2012-10-08-Venezuela-Election/id-c826de82ce084f569dabf8033e0541e8

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SW Wisconsin Land Sales Update: 3rd Quarter Sales Up But Prices ...

9 Oct

Posted October 9, 2012 by JAY FRAZIER Rural Property Pro in Real Estate News, Uncategorized. Leave a Comment

This past summer will long be remembered for the drought that affected much of the country as well as the record high temperatures. ?Perhaps this had some effect on land sales; but when studying the numbers for southwest Wisconsin, it?doesn?t?appear to have had much effect if any. ?Last quarter we saw both the number of sales and the price per acre of rural land inch upward. ?For 3rd quarter we still have increased sales, but the price per acre slipped about 5% over 2011 prices. It?s interesting to note that prices have declined slightly even since the beginning of this year so we are experiencing a dip in the road to recovery as far as prices go.

Land buyers continue to be much more active this year than last. ?Five of the seven counties in this area saw an increase in the number of sales with Grant County leading the way. ?Overall land transactions are up 47% for the 3rd quarter compared to the same period last year.

Only Vernon County realized an increase in price per acre for the 3^rd quarter. ?The other 6 counties studied experienced a decline in price per acre. An interesting side note to pricing involves the list to sale price ratio. ?As the number of sales goes up, so has the list to sale ratio from 89% to 92%. ?I think this reflects the willingness of sellers to bring their asking price more in line with current market conditions. ?Buyers have spoken loud and clear with their dollars during the first 3 quarters of this year. ?They are ready, willing, and able to buy parcels that represent a good value.

Below is a summary of land sales by county (data from SCWMLS & WiREx).

GRANT	3rd Quarter			LAFAYETTE	3rd Quarter
	2012	2011			2012	2011
# of sales	10	1		# of sales	3	2
total acres sold	923	22		total acres sold	99	391
Tillable acres	381	0		Tillable acres	0	302
Wooded acres	492	22		Wooded acres	43	50
Pasture acres	90	0		Pasture acres	49	0
Wetland acres	0	0		Wetland acres	7	0
$/acre	$2,839	$2,954		$/acre	$3,051	$3,519
RICHLAND	3rd Quarter			SAUK	3rd Quarter
	2012	2011			2012	2011
# of sales	5	6		# of sales	5	4
total acres sold	277	822		total acres sold	562	149
Tillable acres	36	380		Tillable acres	145	55
Wooded acres	231	391		Wooded acres	367	92
Pasture acres	10	57		Pasture acres	46	0
Wetland acres	0	0		Wetland acres	5	0
$/acre	$2,580	$2,639		$/acre	$3,200	$3,766
CRAWFORD	3rd Quarter			VERNON	3rd Quarter
	2012	2011			2012	2011
# of sales	3	2		# of sales	4	6
total acres sold	158	242		total acres sold	155	267
Tillable acres	34	55		Tillable acres	40	65
Wooded acres	118	187		Wooded acres	115	191
Pasture acres	0	0		Pasture acres	0	6
Wetland acres	0	0		Wetland acres	0	2
$/acre	$2,185	$2,310		$/acre	$2,900	$2,400
IOWA	3rd Quarter			TOTAL for all 7 COUNTIES	3rd Quarter
	2012	2011			2012	2011
# of sales	4	2		# of sales	34	23
total acres sold	176	340		total acres sold	2350	2233
Tillable acres	49	182		Tillable acres	685	1039
Wooded acres	52	115		Wooded acres	1418	1048
Pasture acres	57	29		Pasture acres	252	92
Wetland acres	18	0		Wetland acres	30	2
$/acre	$3,892	$4,217		Avg $/acre	$2,950	$3,115

?

To learn more about the current land market in Southwest Wisconsin, begin your search here: RuralPropertyPro.com

All data was taken from the SCWMLS & WiREx. Because this article was intended to review the rural land market, properties smaller than 15 acres, residential, and commercial land sales were not included.

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Source: http://southwestwisconsinrealestate.wordpress.com/2012/10/09/sw-wisconsin-land-sales-update-3rd-quarter-sales-up-but-prices-slip-slightly/

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NATO looks beyond Afghan combat mission

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - NATO defense ministers will pave the way this week for the alliance's training mission in Afghanistan once it ends combat operations in 2014, as a surge in insider attacks raises questions about its timetable and strategy.

The ministers, meeting at NATO headquarters in Brussels on Tuesday and Wednesday, are set to approve the broad framework for the post-2014 mission. This will "train, advise and assist" Afghan security forces that are due by then to have taken responsibility for security in the whole country.

The talks will give the go-ahead to military experts to begin detailed planning for the mission, which was endorsed by NATO leaders at their Chicago summit in May. But officials say it is too early to expect any details about the number of troops that will be needed for the mission or how much it will cost.

Western countries are keen to show their commitment to supporting Afghanistan will run beyond 2014 and to counter any suggestion they are running for the exit after a grinding 11-year conflict that has cost more than 2,000 U.S. lives and billions of dollars.

President Barack Obama has been criticized by Republican presidential challenger Mitt Romney for setting a target for withdrawal, noted Daniel Keohane, head of strategic affairs at the FRIDE think-tank.

"Some people say that's like telling the Taliban we're gone after 2014 (and) if they hold out long enough they will win," said Keohane. "Naturally NATO does not want that to happen."

NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said last week his goal was for the alliance to agree on a detailed outline for the mission early next year and to finalize the plan well before the end of 2013.

"This will give us the time we need to make sure the transition to the new mission is seamless," he told a news conference, adding that six non-NATO nations had offered to contribute to the mission.

The Syria conflict is not on the agenda for this week's meeting but the risk of an escalating confrontation between Syria and neighboring Turkey, a NATO member, will be on ministers' minds and they can raise any issue.

NATO ambassadors threw their support behind Turkey after an emergency meeting on the situation at NATO last week. Turkish forces have now retaliated for six consecutive days against bombardment from northern Syria, where President Bashar al-Assad's forces are battling rebels.

READY TO DEFEND TURKEY

Rasmussen has said the alliance has no intention of intervening in Syria but stands ready to defend Turkey if necessary. Some analysts say there is a risk NATO could get dragged into the conflict.

At least 52 members of the NATO-led force have been killed this year by gunmen wearing Afghan police or army uniform, dealing a setback to NATO's strategy of having foreign troops work closely with Afghan counterparts to train them so that they can hand over security as foreign troops prepare to pull out.

Rasmussen conceded last week that the rogue attacks had undermined trust between foreign and Afghan security forces, although he insisted that NATO's strategy remained on track.

The rise in insider attacks led commanders last month to suspend some joint operations between Afghan and foreign troops though Rasmussen said last week almost all of these had now resumed.

(Editing by Sebastian Moffett and Jon Hemming)

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/nato-looks-beyond-afghan-combat-mission-134511485.html

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Brawl Between Two Wedding Parties in Philly Results in One Death, Three Arrests [Video]

A massive brawl broke out between two separate wedding parties in a Philadelphia hotel last night. One wedding guest, the uncle of a bride, died afterwards of a heart attack, and three other guests were arrested. As you can tell from the video above, it was quite the drunken shit show.

"There was an issue with a lot of alcohol fueling the fight," said police spokesman Lt. Ray Evers.

The fight started in the bar at the appropriately named Sheraton Society Hill Hotel and soon spread to the lobby. According to always reliable YouTube commenters, the altercation was triggered when one wedding party, which had a pay bar, attempted to crash the open bar of the other party, which, if true, is as good a reason as any to fight.

Seven police officers can been seen in the video, including one who beats the hell out of an unruly guest with his baton. Police were so overwhelmed that, according their report, they had to call for backup twice. About halfway into the clip, one of the brides enters the fray and appears to go down, perhaps from contact from police. Eventually, she's escorted out.

The video was caught on camera by Matt Schultz, who was celebrating his 15th birthday at the hotel.

"I was up on the second floor watching. It was bedlam, out of hand." Schultz said.

Two guests were cited with counts of disorderly contact and a third, apparently the one getting beat with a baton, was charged with assaulting a police officer. The man who died was also celebrating his 57th birthday and was reportedly not directly involved in the fight.

Source: http://feeds.gawker.com/~r/gawker/full/~3/V6VVqq9vN9E/brawl-between-two-wedding-parties-in-philly-results-in-one-death-three-arrests

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Anti-austerity protests grip 56 Spanish cities

People hold banners against cuts during a demonstration in Madrid, Spain, Sunday, Oct. 7, 2012. Thousands of people called by 150 organizations are marching in 56 Spanish cities to protest punishing austerity cuts they say will only increase unemployment and job insecurity. (AP Photo/Alberto Di Lolli)

People hold banners against cuts during a demonstration in Madrid, Spain, Sunday, Oct. 7, 2012. Thousands of people called by 150 organizations are marching in 56 Spanish cities to protest punishing austerity cuts they say will only increase unemployment and job insecurity. (AP Photo/Alberto Di Lolli)

A woman holds a banner reading 'Without fighting, what would you get?' during a demonstration in Madrid, Spain, Sunday, Oct. 7, 2012. Thousands of people called by 150 organizations are marching in 56 Spanish cities to protest punishing austerity cuts they say will only increase unemployment and job insecurity. (AP Photo/Alberto Di Lolli)

People hold banners against cuts during a demonstration in Madrid, Spain, Sunday, Oct. 7, 2012. Thousands of people called by 150 organizations are marching in 56 Spanish cities to protest punishing austerity cuts they say will only increase unemployment and job insecurity. (AP Photo/Alberto Di Lolli)

People hold up Spanish Republican flags during a protest against the Spanish Government's cutback plans, in Pamplona, northern Spain, Sunday, Oct. 7, 2012. Thousands of people called by 150 organizations are marching in 56 Spanish cities to protest punishing austerity cuts they say will only increase unemployment and job insecurity. (AP Photo/Alvaro Barrientos)

A citizen puts on her shirt a sticker against the Spanish Government's cutbacks plans, in Pamplona, northern Spain, Sunday, Oct. 7, 2012. Thousands of people called by 150 organizations are marching in 56 Spanish cities to protest punishing austerity cuts they say will only increase unemployment and job insecurity. (AP Photo/Alvaro Barrientos)

MADRID (AP) ? Tens of thousands of people marched in 56 Spanish cities Sunday to protest punishing austerity cuts they say will only increase unemployment and job insecurity in a country experiencing its second recession in three years and record high unemployment.

Around 20,000 people marched in Madrid behind a banner that said, "They want to ruin the country. We have to stop them." The rally in Spain's capital was supported by 150 organizations.

Protesters chanted slogans against cuts and waved placards reading "youth without jobs, society with no future." That is a reference to the youth unemployment rate, which surpasses 50 percent. Spain's overall jobless rate is nearly 25 percent and social unrest is on the rise.

"They are abusing the lower social classes," 54-year-old teacher Luis Diaz said. "By backing banks, they are torturing the working class and badly affecting public education, health care and pensions when what they should be doing is exactly the opposite."

Trade union leaders said the marches warned the government that tempers were rising and a general strike was brewing.

Workers Commissions union spokesman Ignacio Fernandez Toxo said a likely date for the strike could be as early as Nov. 14.

The government has implemented tough austerity measures over its nine months in office.

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/cae69a7523db45408eeb2b3a98c0c9c5/Article_2012-10-07-Spain-Financial%20Crisis/id-fd48905e1d314d1987f3daaae98dca74

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Food & Drink Innovation Network ? TWININGS INTRODUCES ...

October 7th, 2012

This winter, Twinings is introducing three exclusive blends to its foodservice range.

Available in loose leaf and envelope formats, and supplied in limited edition commemorative tins, the brand new blends, Christmas Tea, Warming Winter Infusion and Indulgent Vanilla Chai, have been created especially for winter 2012.

The three blends hope to give operators a premium point of difference to elevate their tea offering.

?Christmas Tea? is an aromatic blend, mixing Christmas spices and blended with a full-bodied Assam, while ?Warming Winter? Infusion is a caffeine-free option, blended with Rooibos, orange and cinnamon spice.

?Vanilla Chai? sees black tea blended with spices and vanilla.

Andrea Stopher, Customer Marketing Manager, OOH, at Twinings, said:

?Christmas presents operators with a fantastic opportunity to experience a real uplift in seasonal sales.

?We are here to help caterers realise the profit potential of the festive period with these three limited edition blends.

?The flavours and infusions used make for a classic winter warming brew, while their exclusivity teamed with Twinings brand reassurance means operators can afford to price that little bit higher for what is regarded as a more premium offering.?

Available from November, Twinings? new Christmas blends are supplied in 20x string and tag tea bags in a premium festive envelope, and 100g loose tea caddies.

All three blends come in limited-edition, collectable gifting tins.

?

Related posts:

1. TWININGS TEAMS UP WITH RAINFOREST ALLIANCE
2. BRITVIC RELEASES NEW ROBINSONS RED BERRIES
3. TYRRELLS LAUNCHES NEW SEASONAL LIMITED EDITION FLAVOUR
4. KETTLE CHIPS LAUNCHES A SEASONAL VARIANT
5. TWININGS INTRODUCES NEW TEA DELI RANGE
6. RACHEL?S NEW LIMITED EDITION APPLE & CINNAMON YOGURT
7. DOUWE EGBERTS LAUNCHES LIMITED EDITION COFFEES
8. Twinings launches special offers

Source: http://www.fdin.org.uk/2012/10/twinings-introduces-limited-edition-seasonal-blends/

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?SNL? skewers first presidential debate, Chris Matthews, Big Bird

(NBC)

Last week's presidential debate provided plenty of fodder for "Saturday Night Live," which devoted two sketches and the bulk of its "Weekend Update" segment to skewering the event.

On the cold-open, former cast member Chris Parnell returned to "SNL" to play moderator Jim Lehrer, who was steamrolled by Mitt Romney despite the Republican nominee's forewarning.

"Jim, when it comes to jobs President Obama prefers what I call a trickle-down government solution," Romney, played by Jason Sudeikis, said. "Now my plan is different. It involves 41 basic elements, six abrupt reversals of position and three outright lies."

"Mr. President, Governor Romney has just said he killed Osama bin Laden," Lehrer's Parnell said. "Would you care to respond?"

In another sketch, MSNBC's Chris Matthews--who unloaded on Obama's listless performance on Wednesday and again Thursday--was imitated by Sudeikis. "What the hell happened? I want answers!" he said.

"Well you've got to hand it to Mitt Romney," Seth Meyers said on the "Weekend Update" segment, "because President Obama sure did."

Meyers also picked the debate's winners and losers, including Lehrer.

"He was like a ghost visiting a scene from his past life," Meyers said, "helplessly waving his arms to get their attention" and "stammering like Hugh Grant in a rom-com."

"Also, Jim, you gotta keep the guys to time," Meyers said. "If that's how long you think two minutes is, your wife is a lucky woman."

Aside from Romney, Fox News was the clear winner, Meyers said. "When that thing ended you guys must've looked at each other and said, 'I think we can report this one exactly as it happened.'"

Another winner: America. "Is there anything more exciting than Joe Biden thinking it's up to him to get the lead back?" he said. "There's like a 50 percent chance he's gonna come out at the next debate with his shirt off."

Big Bird, though, refused to engage in partisan politics in his cameo appearance.

"I don't want to ruffle any feathers," he said.

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/snl-debate-big-bird-romney-obama-video-160708050--politics.html

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Pakistan Investing, Fundamental Economic and Markets Outlook ...

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012 Oct 01, 2012 - 03:49 PM

By: Bilal_Khan

In this document we highlight our views on the key investor debates across the macro-economy, FX, fixed income, equities, precious metals and provide our views on asset allocation.

• Economics: Recent improved relations with the US and improved liquidity from the unlocking of USD flows has resulted in a degree of optimism about the future. Will this optimism last given the macro challenges?

• FX: The Pakistan Rupee has weakened by -5.11% vs the USD since 1 January 2012. Will the currency continue to weaken till 31 Dec 2012 and 30 June 2013 in light of significant upcoming external obligations?

• Fixed Income: With the recent shift towards easing monetary policy, what implication does this have for growth and fixed income portfolios? ?

• Fundamentals - Equity: MSCI Pakistan index is up +21.66% since Jan 2012 and up +108.6% since Jan 2009. In contrast, MSCI Emerging Markets are up +4% and +68% respectively and MSCI Frontier Markets are down -4% and -5% respectively. Should investors be buying Pakistan given this performance and economic headwinds?

• Technical Analysis - Equity: As the KSE-100 makes its first approach to its all time high of 15,700 is a breakout or breakdown the next major move? Several technical studies make a strong case for one outcome.?

• Precious Metals: Gold and silver have recently broken out of year long consolidation patterns. Should investors be allocating to this sector? How can the gold/silver ratio help investors maximize returns? ????????

Strategic Asset Allocation Summary

?

?The strategic asset allocation summary is our view on various asset classes based on key debates impacting market dynamics.

Economics ? Hinging on USD inflows

Our View: With Pak-US relations on a better footing and progress on unlocking USD flows, FY13 has kicked off with a sense of optimism. That said, key macro indicators suggest significant economic headwinds are in store.

Table 1 provides a directional indication of how some of the key macro variables have performed during each half of FY12. Historically, macro economic instability has been triggered by a crisis in the external account or foreign reserves position ? herein lies our core concern.

This concern is reinforced by Moody?s recent downgrade of Pakistan?s foreign- and local-currency bond ratings by one notch to Caa1 from B3 and assigned them a negative outlook. The key drivers for the rating action were; a deterioration in Pakistan's balance of payments over the past year; the looming large repayments to the International Monetary

Fund (IMF); dwindling level of official foreign-exchange reserves and institutional weakness stemming from political instability and constrained government finances.

FX ? Further Weakness Ahead

Our View: Latest July data shows the trade balance in deficit territory to the tune of $1.3bn. A widening current account deficit, combined with debt repayment pressures would pose a significant macro risk and lead to weakening currency, tightening of domestic liquidity conditions and increase in capital cost, which would hurt domestic demand. In terms of the Pak Rupee / US Dollar rate, we project depreciation of 9.3% - 10.2% during FY13 as against an actual depreciation of 10.0% in FY12. This could be particularly accentuated in the face of rising oil and food prices as Pakistan?s ability to finance the current account deficit declines.

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Data in Table 2 highlights probable inflows and outflows along with an expected level of FX reserves which Pakistan will have by 30 June, 2013. This is a result of scheduled outflows due to debt payments and continuing pressure on the current account which would pose macro stability risks to Pakistan. If close to 100% of the envisaged inflows materialize, including the remaining $1.4bn under CSF, then policy makers will have bought themselves another year of macroeconomic stability to push through the much needed reforms. The table above shows that FX reserves would decline by an estimated and manageable $2.55bn (23.6% decline) to $8.25bn during FY13 on the above assumptions.

In the event that the above mentioned inflows do not materialize we project that net outflows during FY13 could amount to $6.0bn which would reduce SBP FX reserves to under $5.0bn. Given the volatile geo political situation in the region the risk of these USD flows not materializing remains high. Reliance on one time external flows that are subject to diplomatic relations puts Pakistan in a precarious position with regards to its balance of payments position. For this reason we believe that a decline in FX reserves could very well prompt a return to the IMF in CY13. The view, therefore, that Pakistan can pay its import bill and have sufficient funds to make debt payments while the surplus on the financial account dwindles to zero is at best misplaced.

Fixed Income - Go long to trade

Our View: Bonds have rallied in the wake of the discount rate cut which has helped the KSE 100 to remain one of the best performing markets in 2012. Of course if we were concerned with only the next 3 ? 6 months then this bullish sentiment in the bond, equity and money markets would not be unwarranted. Our view is that investors should take advantage of falling yields by extending their portfolio duration through longer tenors with a view to realizing capital gains at the bottom of the interest rate cycle which we expect to occur during the second half of the current fiscal year. Allocating 15% - 20% of a fixed income portfolio to 5 and 10 year bonds and selling them in 1HCY13 will allow investors to outperform the market.?

We believe that the recent reduction in the discount rate by 150 basis points was driven by election year considerations rather than an unbiased view of macroeconomic fundamentals. The premise for the rate cut was single digit inflation which currently stands at 9.05% (August 2012), positive real interest rates and an attempt to boost private sector investment which has fallen to just 12% of GDP. However the cut ignores the fiscal deficit (recorded at 8.5% of GDP in FY12) which is expected to worsen in an election year and the projected decline in FX reserves.

During FY12 the government relied almost exclusively on domestic sources to finance its fiscal deficit. The SBP monetized Rs. 507.5bn ($5.4bn) of deficit spending while scheduled banks extended Rs. 636.4bn ($6.8bn) to the government. Inflationary borrowing from the SBP is particularly worrisome while banks have concentrated investments in sovereign debt and abstained from extending credit to the private sector. Consequently liquidity remains constrained and requires weekly injections from the SBP. These injections are recycled into T bill auctions to keep the interbank market running smoothly.

On the monetary side, the 14.14% increase in M2 during FY12 was either inflationary via deficit monetization or unproductive via bank lending to the government. The government?s debt structure has become increasingly skewed with almost 55% of the government?s Rs. 7.88 trillion domestic liabilities comprised of shorter tenor T bills.

This percentage has been on the rise over the last decade and is up from 31.7% in 2002, 42.4% in 2007 and 49.3% in 2009. This increasing reliance on short term borrowing from banks which has to be refinanced on a regular basis magnifies the roll over risk inherent in domestic debt. It is for this reason that the recent rating downgrade of Pakistani sovereign debt was followed by a similar downgrade for some of the largest banks in the country.????

Graph1: Upcoming maturities of GOP domestic debt (PKR bn)

The inflation outlook for the coming months appears challenging with food prices and general inflation likely to trend up. The decline in oil since Mar12 has reversed significantly with Arab Light prices having rallied notably from their low in Jun12. At current levels ($ +110/barrel) we would expect a steeper oil bill than the $15.2bn paid out in FY12. Similarly the adverse weather conditions in the US, EU, Australia and India have sent international commodity prices skyrocketing. The weight of food in the CPI basket stands at almost 35.0% and a similar spike in the domestic market would not bode well for the government?s FY13 inflation target of 9.5%. We expect that single digit inflation will continue till the end of CY12 (due to the base effect) after which it will climb back above 10.0%. Thus the window for further discount rate cuts will remain open for perhaps another quarter.??

In conclusion, we believe that the current monetary easing cycle is likely to be amongst the shortest in Pakistan?s history. Further, in the event that Pakistan returns to an IMF program, the likelihood of a sharp rise ahead remains a distinct possibility. Policy makers need to be wary of pursuing expansionary monetary and fiscal policies while structural issues continue to drag on growth. In the past we have seen the economy overheating as supply could not keep pace with domestic demand. To revive domestic demand without jeopardizing macroeconomic stability, policy makers will need to focus on structural energy sector reforms, controlling expenditures, boosting tax revenues and increasing productivity. The Government of Pakistan?s (GoP?s) loose fiscal policy has created a monetary overhang that is at the heart of the current situation. Hence, the key

to our interest rate outlook will remain dependant upon the GoP?s efforts at fiscal tightening and procuring the much needed balance of payments support.

Equity ? Cheap with Strong Growth ?

Our View: Despite MSCI EM and FM remaining flat or negative during CY12, Pakistan is up aggressively by over +20% in USD terms. Arguably, and compounded by Pakistan?s macro weakness, Pakistani stocks continue to enjoy the 3 Us which drive our ?buy? conviction call on specific stocks ? as Pakistani equities continue to remain underloved, underowned and undervalued.

This view is further reinforced by event driven triggers which would allow for an expansion in market and stock multiples. These events include:

• Strong corporate earnings announcements
• Ease in US/Pak tensions
• Opening up of official trade with India
• Further monetary easing
• Continuation of the democratic process

?The BMA Funds? active universe of 19 companies has +26% earnings growth, an 8.7% expected dividend yield and a forward price earnings ratio of 6.3x.? A mixed exposure to high yielding and high growth Pakistani equities can present a total return proposition of 15% over the next 6-mths which is attractive when compared with competing asset classes domestically and globally.

The easing in US/Pak relations and the incorporation of the new CGT regime in the Finance Bill has we believe improved sentiment and reduced perceived risk for domestic investors. This is reinforced by recent large transactions in Hubco where Dawood Group and Allied Bank bought and International Power sold a 17.4% stake in Hub Power for $60mn. More recently a consortium led by the Lucky Group acquired a 75.81% stake of ICI Pakistan which was sold by Akzo Noble for a total transaction value of $177mn.

We like sectors supported by Pakistan?s domestic demand and driven by a young and growing population. These are factors which continue to feed growth in staple industries despite weak macro economic indicators. These include Oil & Gas exploration and production, oil marketing companies, large cap banks, cement, independent power producers and the fertilizer sector. Our top picks are Lucky Cement, Pakistan Oil Fields Limited, Pakistan Petroleum Limited, MCB Bank Limited, and Attock Petroleum.

The Technical View: Cyclical Bull Could be Nearing a Top

Our View: For some time now we have been of the view that the KSE-100 is in a secular bull cycle which started in 1998 and should run beyond 2015 to take the index towards the 20,000 level. However, within secular cycles there are also multiple cyclical cycles. Whilst secular cycles are measured in decades, cyclical cycles are measured in years and months. ?

During the near 4-yr Pakistan bull market there have been four corrections of note with the largest being a -15.7% correction in CY11 which took 8-mths to complete. Once the top is in place, the coming correction could exceed in price and time the -15.7%, 8-mth correction of CY11 which would lead us in to the longest and deepest period of regress since the 2009 bottom.

The latest cyclical bull cycle in Pakistan started after the 2008 bust when the KSE-100 bottomed at 4,800 towards the start of 2009, since then the bull has rallied over +200% (PKR terms) during a near 4-yr period to take the KSE-100 to within 2% of its all time highs at 15,700.

Graphs 3 and 4 show the key technical factors which argue that the KSE-100 could be topping out, these include:

1. The KSE-100 is approaching its all time high (15,700) ? significant highs and lows act as important resistance/ support levels. The market should react from the 2008 highs at the first time of asking.

2. The KSE-100 has been rallying in a 5th wave at two degrees of trend from the ?09 lows so a corrective move lasting several months should be close at hand.
3. Multiple Fibonacci relationships highlight a strong cluster of resistance around 15,000 ( 5%)
4. Price action has been confined within a bullish price channel since late 2009 and the rally in CY12 has taken the index to its upper boundary. Channel resistance is now in play.
5. Momentum and volume are diverging against price on multiple timeframes.

The alternative wave labeling leaves open the possibility that the KSE-100 can continue to rally and tear through the 2008 highs. This is supported by market valuations being 50% lower than at the 2008 high and leverage around 80% lower. However until a breakout is sustained this remains an alternative interpretation of price action.

Precious Metals ? New Highs are on the way

Our View: Metals have been in consolidation mode for over 1-yr. Silver topped out in April ?11 and gold in August ?11, since then both metals had been correcting the previous advance and forming a low volatility base which allowed the Average True Range (ATR) to fall sharply. Gold held above major support at $1,525 and silver at $26.6, both have now rallied aggressively since late August leading us to believe that final corrective lows are now in place and a rally to new highs is underway.

In genuine precious metal moves we always look for silver to lead gold higher and this bull move should be no exception. Since the final lows have been in place silver is +28% whilst gold is +13%, silver is showing clear relative strength adding credibility to the current advance being the start of a new cyclical move higher. The gold/silver ratio currently at 51, has fallen from a high in August of 59 and should continue to trend lower towards the low 30?s as both gold and silver move to new all time highs. Silver will outperform and offer a leveraged play on gold. Traditional metals investors usually only buy gold, and while this strategy generated attractive returns a partial allocation to silver would have augmented portfolio returns. Aggressive investors would be well advised to hold a sizeable quantity of silver as well as gold in order to maximize potential gains from the precious metals bull market.

Risks: What to watch out for

Although we remain cautiously optimistic the chances of the equity bull market being derailed depend on the following risk factors:

• Conflict between US/Israel and Iran would spike international oil prices impacting energy deficient economies;

• EU debt crises spreading from periphery countries to the core of the EU (Germany, France, England) and beyond (Japan, USA) could create panic and induce equity investors to off load their positions;

• Non realization of USD flows would trigger a balance of payments crisis

?Energy crises and continuation of circular debt problem;

• Ending of a monetary easing cycle in Pakistan

Opinions expressed in the note are that of the Members of the Research Investment Committee, BMA Funds:
Muddassar Malik | Farrukh Hussain | Bilal Khan | Mustafa Pasha, CFA

About the RIC Report: The Research Investment Committee (RIC) within BMA Funds is responsible for arriving at decisions relating to asset allocation and investment decisions for client assets managed by the Firm.? This report aims to present broad investment themes and views held by the Investment Team at BMA Funds in a thorough, easy-to-read format that provides insightful analysis and specific investment ideas across major sectors. Whether you are an institutional investor or a private client, the best way to put the RIC Report to work for you is to talk with a BMA Funds Advisor about specific opportunities that interest you. You can take advantage of our investment platform focused to help you keep your long-term investment plan on track. For further information, please email us on invest@bmafunds.com

Bilal Khan

Vice President, Investments

BMA Funds
801 Unitower - I.I. Chundrigar Road - Karachi 74200 - Pakistan
Tel: +92 21 111 262 111 - Fax: +92 21 3242 6829 - www.bmafunds.com

? 2012 Copyright BMA Funds- All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer - This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds and other investment plans are subject to market risks. The NAV based prices of units and any dividends/returns thereon are dependent on forces and factors affecting the capital markets. These may go up or down based on market conditions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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